Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns

Design and science often require exploration. An endless venturing into the great unknown, into what is and what could be.

But “exploration” implies gaining information, which means there are things we have to describe that we don’t yet know!

So how do we describe what we don’t yet know?

The Age of Exploration

Long before the Age of Mapquest, some mapmakers added phrases around the edge of the known world, one example warning “Hic sunt dracones” — meaning something along the lines of, “here be dragons”.

Whether the intent was figurative or literal, it signified all opportunities and dangers. Brave explorers set out to chart new land, find resources, and feed humanity’s innate curiosity. In doing so, they had to fearlessly embrace the unknown.

For these sailors, and for designers and scientists as well, there are two types of unknowns: Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns.

Known Unknowns

When there are things that we know that we don’t know, those are still things that need to be modeled.

Black Boxes: “I don’t know”

If distant land had been spotted, but sailors didn’t have time to sail and explore it, then that spot of land became may be described as a black box. They know of this land, but they don’t know what’s within it.

Info can be extrapolated: maybe they’re near -40° latitude and it’s going to be extremely cold. And maybe there is likely to be food, and shelter.

Designers can use black boxes to visually acknowledge unknowns, while still letting these unknowns play a role in the overall system.

Assumptions & Hypotheses: “I think I know…”

But what if these sailors had heard legends of a Mystic Spice Tree that grew on islands south of the Cape? They might presume that this was indeed that island, and engage in a side expedition. Or, they might just report it to people back home, and explore it later.

Designers are faced with this all the time: When building personas, how much of the information was inducted vs deducted? Which parts are more validated than others?

When something is an assumption or hypothesis, it’s probably best to identify it as such, whenever possible.

Unknown Unknowns

Maybe the island held a surprise that they never expected. Host to an active volcano, the volcanic activity provided enough warmth for prosperous moss, palms, and grasses to survive.

Or maybe the landmass wasn’t an island after all. A whole new continent. And maybe it didn’t end at a flat edge, but wrapped around the surface of a sphere. Unlikely.

This is information that would be nearly impossible to predict. But we can increase our odds of identifying them, and dealing with them when they arise.

Generalization

You can cast a net around all future possibilities and put a name on it. For instance, a sailor might want to carry general repair equipment and medical supplies. They might have a protocol for new discoveries.

Designers can generalize unknown unknowns, too: Not sure what error states to design for in a UI design? Generalize ways of categorizing them, so you’ll know what to do when they do come up. Not sure what screen size will be used? Make it responsive, using generalized sets of breakpoints.

Validation

You can test current assumptions. If you know the hull planking hasn’t been checked for awhile, you might want to make sure it’s okay.

If it’s been awhile since you’ve done a user research test, it’s never too late. Maybe users have discovered a way to use the system in ways you never could’ve predicted.

Breadth

You can try things out. Simply by trying different things out, you’ll learn more about what you don’t know. For sailors, it’s simple: The less direct route you take from Location A to Location B, the higher your chances of discovering a new location.

To designers this means rapid concepting, being curious, and making connections to things in every day life. By not restricting yourself to a narrow problem space, you’re able to understand the opportunities and risks you might not have seen otherwise.

Takeaways

Design and science require us to embrace and acknowledge the unknown. There are two types of unknowns, with very different approaches for dealing with each of them.